{
  "method": "Unsmoothed historical affirmance frequency, argued civil merits appeals, excluding prisoner categories. All representation statuses and civil case types pooled within circuit. Mixed dispositions count as not affirmed; procedural terminations excluded. FY2016\u2013FY2025 decisions only. Not a case-specific M5 forecast, and not validated on the selected editorial catalogue.",
  "source": "https://www.fjc.gov/research/idb",
  "source_sha256": "a7f7c3d2a72c76038bb6ac12fb1292c16b20357a0397b9b8ed5ff65b61f62598",
  "snapshot": "2026-06-30",
  "cohorts": {
    "ca5": {
      "probability": 0.6134220743205768,
      "n": 5409,
      "affirmed": 3318,
      "interval": [
        0.6003682902611679,
        0.6263148626321294
      ]
    },
    "ca9": {
      "probability": 0.578961038961039,
      "n": 7700,
      "affirmed": 4458,
      "interval": [
        0.5678963498754155,
        0.5899469785751592
      ]
    }
  }
}