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Can preschool funding depend on admissions rules?

St. Mary Catholic Parish v. Roy

Constitutional law · US Supreme Court · No. 25-581 · Argument scheduled

The case, in plain English.

The schools want access to Colorado’s universal preschool funding while retaining admissions policies based on Catholic beliefs. They say exceptions allowed for other providers make their exclusion discriminatory. Colorado disputes that characterisation and says its equal-opportunity requirements apply to religious and secular providers alike.

Why it matters

Our reading: the decision could clarify when conditions attached to public funding burden religious exercise enough to require the government’s strongest constitutional justification.

Will the Supreme Court reverse or vacate the lower-court judgment, wholly or in part?

From bet to decision

  1. Place a simulated betCloses 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 AEDT (Sydney)

    Your odds are locked when your simulated bet is accepted.

  2. Oral argument3 November 2026

    Argument scheduled

  3. Court decisionDate not announced

    The betting deadline is not the Court’s decision date.

  4. Bet settlementAfter outcome review

    The official outcome is checked against the rules. Winning bets pay out; void bets return your stake.

Read the settlement rules

What informs the forecast?

The model estimates the chance of a petitioner win at 95.7%, based on information recorded before oral argument. A win means the Court reverses or vacates the lower-court judgment, wholly or in part, under the rules below. This does not predict which legal arguments will succeed. Historical model tests do not establish live forecasting accuracy.

Forecast provenance

Model: scotus-m2-logit-audit-corrected. Generated: 2026-09-27T01:50:16Z. Target: petitioner win. Feature snapshot SHA-256: 043b88c8594381c87a1b6f93f5e7b8493ad0e413ea816aebf39a63ecd3220f7f.

What could change the view

A ruling on one narrow admissions condition may leave the wider funding system intact. The Court could require a different analysis without deciding whether the schools must be admitted.

Model-derived probabilities are uncertain, not guarantees. Historical backtests do not establish live accuracy. Prices use reciprocal probabilities with no added margin; two-decimal rounding may slightly affect implied totals.

Outcome & resolution rules

YES (petitioner win) means the Supreme Court reverses or vacates the lower-court judgment, wholly or in part, including a grant-vacate-remand or mootness vacatur. NO means affirmance (including an equally divided Court), dismissal as improvidently granted, or other writ dismissal leaving the judgment standing. Settlement or dismissal by agreement, removal from the calendar or vacatur of certiorari is VOID and returns the stake. Modified or unclassified judgments require manual review. This predicts judgment disposition, not whether a particular legal argument succeeds. Resolution follows forecast rules version 2.

The first issued Supreme Court judgment on the lead docket controls; later rehearing changes are ignored. The slip-opinion judgment and official docket are checked independently. Conflicts, modified judgments and unmatched dispositions require manual review, not an assumed result. The selection deadline closes new positions; it is not a deadline for a Court judgment.

Deadline: 3 Nov 2026, 11:00 AEDT (Sydney). Market rule revision 1. Accepted bets retain this version. Only a reviewed official outcome can settle this market.

Forecast rules version 2 defines the model’s outcome categories. The market rule revision above tracks changes to this market’s accepted rules; these are separate version numbers.