What informs the forecast?
Historical baseline: 57.9% full affirmance among 7700 argued merits appeals in the same circuit and broad case category. This is an experimental starting price, not a case-specific assessment of the briefs or judges. It is conditional on a qualifying merits decision; procedural endings return stakes. Its accuracy on this selected catalogue has not been established.
Historical sample and calculation: FY2016–2025 argued civil merits appeals, pooled within circuit; excludes prisoner categories. The historical cohort is broader than this selected catalogue.
Lead appeal: 26-3709. Related appeals in this package: 26-3712, 26-3714. Judgment expiry: 27 Sept 2027, 12:30 AEST (Sydney).
Forecast provenance
Model: FJC circuit civil baseline FY2016–2025. Generated: 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z. Target: full affirmance on the lead appeal. Feature snapshot SHA-256: 5537e577a91c3d7f258f115fe1ac2cf3988263261e62047702ad64bba02c0379.
What could change the view
No case-specific adjustment has been made to the circuit baseline. New materials may require suspension and further review.
Model-derived probabilities are uncertain, not guarantees. Historical backtests do not establish live accuracy. Prices use reciprocal probabilities with no added margin; two-decimal rounding may slightly affect implied totals.
Outcome & resolution rules
YES if the first merits judgment issued after this market opens affirms in full the judgment or order under review on the named lead appeal. NO if that judgment reverses or vacates any part of that judgment or order, including an affirmed-in-part/reversed-in-part result. A remand alone is not enough: classify the accompanying disposition. Dismissal of the appeal, withdrawal, settlement, mootness, denial of jurisdiction, an equally divided court, or a disposition that cannot be classified is VOID and returns stakes. Related docket numbers listed on this page identify the same case package; they are not additional independent markets. If a combined judgment does not identify the disposition of the named lead appeal, the result is VOID. Later rehearing, mandate or further proceedings do not reopen settlement. If no qualifying judgment issues within 365 days of this market opening, the market is VOID. Two separate reviewers must verify the official judgment and docket before settlement. Market opens 2026-09-27T02:30:00.000Z; judgment expiry 2027-09-27T02:30:00.000Z. Lead appeal: 26-3709.
This is an appellate disposition market on the named lead docket. Mixed merits dispositions resolve NO; procedural terminations resolve VOID. The selection deadline closes betting before argument and is separate from the judgment-expiry date stated in the rules.
Deadline: 1 Dec 2026, 11:00 AEDT (Sydney). Market rule revision 1. Accepted bets retain this version. Only a reviewed official outcome can settle this market.