What informs the forecast?
Forecast unavailable. Awaiting completion of merits briefing.
What could change the view
The Court could resolve the consent-decree issue without reaching the statutory question, or treat state and federal forms differently. A ruling on either issue may affect this selection if it changes the judgment on the lead docket. The judgment-disposition rules below control.
Model-derived probabilities are uncertain, not guarantees. Historical backtests do not establish live accuracy. Prices use reciprocal probabilities with no added margin; two-decimal rounding may slightly affect implied totals.
Outcome & resolution rules
YES (petitioner win) means the Supreme Court reverses or vacates the lower-court judgment, wholly or in part, including a grant-vacate-remand or mootness vacatur. NO means affirmance (including an equally divided Court), dismissal as improvidently granted, or other writ dismissal leaving the judgment standing. Settlement or dismissal by agreement, removal from the calendar or vacatur of certiorari is VOID and returns the stake. Modified or unclassified judgments require manual review. This predicts judgment disposition, not whether a particular legal argument succeeds. Resolution follows forecast rules version 2.
The first issued Supreme Court judgment on the lead docket controls; later rehearing changes are ignored. The slip-opinion judgment and official docket are checked independently. Conflicts, modified judgments and unmatched dispositions require manual review, not an assumed result. The selection deadline closes new positions; it is not a deadline for a Court judgment.
Deadline: 8 Dec 2026, 11:00 AEDT (Sydney). Market rule revision 1. Accepted bets retain this version. Only a reviewed official outcome can settle this market.
Forecast rules version 2 defines the model’s outcome categories. The market rule revision above tracks changes to this market’s accepted rules; these are separate version numbers.